National Capital
Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 12:20
The Ruble Is “Heading” Higher
09:55
On the news that Russia and the United States had concluded a “diesel deal,” the MOEX Index rose to 2,400 points, while the Central Bank lowered the dollar exchange rate from 84.9 to 83.9 rubles. The ruble’s appreciation was also supported by Trump’s statement about an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine. Another factor contributing to the ruble’s rise was higher oil prices, driven by the prolonged conflict in the Persian Gulf. Oil prices were also supported by reduced U.S. oil production: 60% of production had been suspended due to Hurricane Isaiah.
The U.S. authorities’ decision will clearly help improve the geopolitical situation for Russia. As a result, pressure on the ruble is likely to ease over time, which in turn will allow the Central Bank to lower its key rate in the longer term, bringing its inflation target within closer reach.
A more favorable geopolitical situation for Russia will also affect the Russian debt market, as demonstrated on Friday by the RGBI government bond index, which reached a two-week high. Overall, despite the relatively small volume of the diesel agreement between Russia and the United States, it is clear that such an agreement will have a positive effect on the performance of Russian financial markets in the medium term and will somewhat reduce the sanctions risks facing the country.
Author: Doctor of Economics, Professor at the Department of World Economy and International Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Vladislav Vladimirovich Antropov.
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