Automotive Market of China and Exports to Russia: Structural Shifts and Prospects

On the roads of Chinese megacities, cars from well-known Western and Japanese brands may predominate. However, a detailed analysis of the vehicle fleet structure shows that models of local production account for a substantial share. This is due not so much to consumer preferences as to a deeply elaborated industrial policy aimed at localization and technological independence. According to industry experts, Chinese brands have firmly established themselves among the leaders of the domestic market—above all BYD, as well as Geely, Changan, and Chery. At the same time, it is important to consider that a significant portion of vehicles perceived as “foreign” is in fact produced within the PRC under joint ventures. For example, Volkswagen, Toyota, and Nissan products are manufactured at plants created in partnership with Chinese companies (FAW, GAC, etc.), which makes it possible to view such models as part of the national manufacturing base.

Special attention should be given to the electric vehicle segment, which is demonstrating outpacing growth rates. In major cities such as Shanghai, the share of EVs reaches 50 % of all cars on the road. This result became possible thanks to a set of incentive measures: preferential taxation (exemption from the purchase tax allows savings of up to 10 % of the price), a simplified procedure for obtaining license plates, access to dedicated lanes, and parking benefits. In addition, under stringent environmental standards and restrictions on the movement of internal combustion vehicles (for example, the “odd-even” principle depending on the last digit of the plate number), electric cars become not merely an alternative, but effectively the most convenient solution for an urban resident.

China’s manufacturing base for electric transport is also developing at an accelerated pace. A vivid example is the Tesla Gigafactory in Shanghai, which since 2019 has not only met domestic demand but has also actively participated in export shipments. In December 2025, the plant celebrated the production of its four-millionth electric car, underscoring its importance in the global supply chain. Similar trends are observed in cooperation with European manufacturers: the joint venture of Volkswagen and SAIC in the Anting area became the first specialized plant in the world for the German концерн to produce electric vehicles on the MEB platform. This indicates a shift from simple localization to deep technological integration.

Exports of automobiles from China to Russia in 2025 showed a noticeable decline: passenger car shipments fell by 42 % (to 632.3 thousand units), and their total value—by 44.3 % (to $8.46 billion). Despite this, Russia remains the largest importer of Chinese cars. This dynamic may be due to several factors. First, the share of localized brands is growing, including subsidiaries of Chinese концерны (Tenet, Belgee) and other brands (Solaris), which are gradually redistributing consumer demand. Second, the structure of supply is changing: sub-brands increasingly appear on the market, oriented to specific segments and positioned as independent players (Omoda, Jaecoo, Lepas). This is an effective way to diversify the portfolio and minimize reputational risks; however, from the consumer’s point of view, such a practice can create information asymmetry: it is not always obvious that different brands belong to the same parent company.

In 2026 exports of automobiles from China to Russia increased markedly: according to China’s General Administration of Customs, in the first half of the year the volume of passenger-car shipments reached $6.24 billion — 2.3 times more than in the same period of 2025, and above the record level of 2024. The trend is also evident in other segments: shipments of trucks increased by 58.8 %, and auto components — by 14 %. This growth partly reflects the strategy of Chinese manufacturers, which, against the backdrop of weakening domestic demand, are actively expanding their presence in overseas markets; at the same time, the ramp-up of exports of commercial vehicles and parts points to the building of a resilient supply chain.

The current situation reflects patterns typical of mature markets: consolidation, specialization, and optimization of product lines. Expert forecasts that the number of Chinese brands will shrink to 8–10 major players align with the theory of “natural selection” under intense competition. Most likely, in the coming years we will see not so much the disappearance of smaller brands as their integration into larger holdings or their transformation into niche sub-brands. This process will be accompanied by stronger cooperation, the development of proprietary technology platforms, and expanded export expansion into new regions—from Southeast Asia to Europe.

Thus, China’s automotive market is at a stage of structural transformation: from quantitative growth to qualitative optimization. For Russia, this means not only changes in the range of imported models, but also the need to adapt the regulatory and infrastructure environment to new realities—particularly to the increasing share of electric vehicles and the development of service support for Chinese-brand cars. In the long term, the key success factor will be not so much the volume of shipments as the ability to build устойчивые value-added chains and ensure technological compatibility with national standards.

Author: Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of World Economy and World Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Natalia Ivanovna Chovgan.