Energy Market of ASEAN: A Place for Suppliers or Long-Term Partners

The International Monetary Fund expects GDP growth of ASEAN-5 countries to reach 4.1% by the end of 2026 (Source: IMF). The region’s economic expansion is primarily driven by industrial production and urban growth, which require stable access to fuel and electricity. According to the IEA, Southeast Asia’s energy consumption may increase by about a quarter by 2035, making the region more sensitive to commodity prices and the reliability of external supplies (Source: IEA). Instability in the Middle East and volatility in commodity markets increase the importance of energy security for ASEAN countries, turning it into one of the key conditions for long-term economic development (Source: Kapital Strany).

Against this backdrop, the United States has already responded to the growing demand for energy resources in ASEAN countries. On June 10, 2026, at the ASEAN Future Forum in Hanoi, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau stated that Washington intends to release part of its strategic energy reserves and increase sales of liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas to ASEAN countries. According to him, the current energy crisis has demonstrated the need to diversify energy sources and strengthen the long-term resilience of the region’s energy systems. The United States also announced supplies of crude oil and LPG to the Philippines to reduce the supply deficit (Source: Reuters).

As a major energy power, Russia also needs to develop energy cooperation with the countries of the region. At the same time, the forms of presence in the ASEAN energy market may vary. While the American initiative is primarily associated with expanding energy supplies, the Russian approach may rely on participation in large-scale energy and infrastructure projects. Agreements concluded with individual member states of the bloc may become the foundation of Russia–ASEAN energy partnership. For example, on March 23, 2026, Russia and Vietnam signed an intergovernmental agreement on the construction of the Ninh Thuan-1 nuclear power plant. The document creates the legal framework for the construction of the plant, whose design предусматриes two Russian-designed VVER-1200 power units with a total capacity of 2.4 GW (Source: Vedomosti). Rosatom CEO Alexey Likhachev described the agreement as a foundation for long-term industrial partnership aimed at strengthening Vietnam’s energy independence and creating new opportunities for economic growth (Source: Rosatom). At the same time, Ninh Thuan-1 is not the only Russia–Vietnam project in the nuclear energy sector. The parties are also developing the Nuclear Science and Technology Center project in Vietnam, which предусматривает the construction of a Russian-designed research reactor. The Dalat research reactor continues to operate using Russian fuel, ensuring the production of medical isotopes (Source: Rosatom).

Such projects may receive additional momentum at the Russia–ASEAN Summit to be held in Kazan from June 17 to 19, 2026. The parties are finalizing preparations for the 2026–2030 Action Plan, where energy, infrastructure, industrial cooperation, and new technologies are identified as priorities (Source: ASEAN). These areas will also be addressed in a dedicated section of the summit’s business program, reflecting the intention to expand cooperation beyond traditional trade in raw materials (Source: AiF).

For ASEAN countries, the development of energy partnership with Russia and its regions opens up new opportunities to diversify the energy sector, ensure stable access to fuel and electricity, reduce dependence on price shocks and external supply disruptions. In the long term, this will strengthen the region’s resilience and create a more reliable foundation for economic growth.

Author: Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department of World Economy and World Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Rinas Vasimovich Kashbraziev.