Digitalization of Payments and the Role of Cash: Factors of Trend Sustainability and Prospects for the Introduction of the Digital Ruble

In everyday transactions, people mostly continue to use cashless payment methods — cards, transfers, and various digital services. Businesses show a similar pattern.

However, it is still impossible to completely abandon cash at this stage. In certain cases, demand for it may temporarily increase. Most often, this is связано with disruptions in internet services or difficulties accessing online platforms. For such situations, households and companies keep a certain amount of cash reserves so that payments can continue if necessary.

At the same time, it is important to understand that such spikes are not sustainable in nature. For example, in March 2026, the volume of cash increased by 0.3 trillion rubles, whereas a month earlier the growth amounted to 0.2 trillion. Similar situations have already been observed, particularly in the summer of 2025, when the increase also reached about 0.2 trillion rubles per month. In other words, this is more of a reaction to specific circumstances rather than a reversal of the overall trend.

On the other hand, such episodes demonstrate that even with a high level of digitalization, dependence on technical infrastructure remains. If disruptions occur, familiar cashless instruments may function less effectively, and alternatives have to be sought. In this sense, it becomes clear that a reliable and resilient foundation for the entire financial system is essential — without it, the effectiveness of modern solutions noticeably declines.

In the long term, paper money will most likely be used mainly as a backup option — in case of such disruptions. At the same time, a new form of money is developing in parallel — the digital ruble, which is viewed as another instrument for making payments.

It is assumed that its introduction will enhance the overall resilience of the payment system. In addition, it may simplify transactions in situations where access to traditional channels is limited. The digital ruble is also expected to make payments more transparent and help reduce costs for both businesses and ordinary users.

Author: Candidate of Economic Sciences, Senior Lecturer at the Department of World Economy and World Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Kristina Davidovna Gvasaliya